Japan, Land of the Rising Average Age

I'm getting close to done. I should be unplugged by Wednesday.

I'm currently working on a 6-10 page research paper exploring the effects population decline will have on the Japanese domestic economy and their position as a leader in the global economy. I am completing it for the Morgan Stanley/Bridging Scholarship for students hoping to study economics or business in Japan. I'm hoping that there won't be too much competition but I have a feeling that two $7,500 scholarships will attract a lot of applicants.

This has been SIGNIFICANTLY changed and lengthened. For some reason one of my paragraphs insists on appearing with black text. You'll have to select it to read.

A sample of what I've been up to:

"Japan's demographics have and will continue to be dramatically reshaped by an extended period of sub-replacement fertility. That is, the rate at which women have children has and will be below that required to maintain the size of the population. Just as a growing population has a high percentage of children and low average age, a population with a low birth rate and a shrinking population will have an abundance of seniors and a high average age. When a shift between a high fertility rate and sub-replacement fertility occurs quickly, as it has in Japan, it results in a rapidly aging population and an accelerated period of population decline.

Japan, like many other nations, experienced a high rate of birth following World War II. This high rate(4.54 children born per woman in 1947, 4.4 in '48 and 4.32 in '49, 3.65 in '50 and 3.26 in '51) was significantly higher than the replacement fertility rate (calculated at approximately 2.08) and resulted in a large increase in population and an unusually large generation. This generation is commonly known as the “baby-boom”. After the boom, during the Fifties, the birth rate began to decline rapidly, falling to 2.04 in 1959.

Through the Sixties the fertility rate fluctuated back and forth around the 2.08 replacement rate. An anomalous low of 1.58 was set in 1966 for the unlucky year of Hinoeuma. During this decade the average fertility rate was 2.02.

The early Seventies saw the baby-boomers coming of age and starting families. When combined with a moderate increase in fertility (2.14 in 1970-73) the large number of parents created a spike in births. This is sometimes referred to as Japan's “second baby-boom”.

In the mid to late Seventies fertility began to drop. 1973 marked the last year Japan experienced replacement fertility. From 1977, the birth rate continued to slide to its present low. All the way through the Eighties, Nineties and the first part of the new millennium fewer and fewer babies were born per woman each year.

It is expected that Japan's fertility rate will remain below replacement level for most of the next century. The Japanese National Institute for Population and Social Security Research(IPSS) released a study in 2002 predicting future fertility and population growth along three lines, labeled “High”, “Medium” and “Low”. The United Nations(UN) published a similar report in 1998 with predictions similar to the Medium set from the IPSS. The High and Medium calculations predict fertility rates to rise, increasing and stabilizing at 1.62-1.63 and 1.38-1.39 by 2025 respectively . The Low calculation predicts a continued slide and eventual stability at 1.11 in 2025. These numbers are calculated out to the year 2050.

At present, the low birthrates are starting to have a net negative effect on population. Japan's total population shrank for the first time in 2005, two years sooner than expected. 2005 figures show 1.067 million births and 1.077 deaths, a decline in total population by 10,000. The population would have responded to the low birth rates and started declining earlier but for a steady increase in life expectancy.

In 1947, during the post-war population boom, average life expectancy was at 52 years. As Japan modernized and began to practice modern medicine Japanese life expectancies climbed. Every year, the Japanese are living longer. As of 2004 the average life expectancy was 82 years. This represents a 30 year increase over a 57 year period. As the Japanese lived longer the ranks of the elderly grew and offset the declining numbers of children.

The shrinking is expected to accelerate in coming years. The larger generations of the past are reaching the ends of their lives and the generations that are replacing them are much smaller. For comparisons sake, there were 12.53 million people born in the baby-boom during 1947 through the end of 1951, and 5.97 born during 1996 through the end of 2000. As of 2004, 19.5% of the population was over 65 years old and 13.9% was under 14.

According to the 2002 IPSS calculations, which have so far slightly underestimated the population decline, the population is predicted to decline every year through 2100, the last year forecasted, under all three calculations, High, Medium and Low. The predicted population in 2025 is 124.04 million, 121.13 million and 117.76 million for High, Medium and Low respectively. If the trends on which these calculations are based continue Japan's population will have fallen to 81.764 million, 64.14 million, or 46.45 million. If the Middle variant is correct this represents the population being cut nearly in half in a single century."

Please, please please, if you see an error, typo or any other mistake leave a comment or send me an email. That also applies to any areas where the phrasing is awkward or unclear. Thanks.